2nd Advisory workshop on Enhancing Forecasting Capabilities for North Indian Ocean Storm Surges
In-Region Workshop on North Indian Ocean Storm Surge Modelling
11 - 15 February 2011
The 2nd Advisory Workshop on enhancing the forecasting capabilities for North Indian Ocean Storm Surges (IIT-D storm surge model upgrade) was held in India at Indian Institute of Technology Delhi (IIT Delhi) during 11-15 February 2011. This workshop was organized to review the progress on the recommendations made in the first workshop held in IIT Delhi, India, from 14 to 17 July 2009 (see http://www.jcomm.info/SSIndia). It was conducted under the framework of the UNESCO project on “Enhancing regional capabilities for Coastal Hazards Forecasting and Data Portal Systems”. The international experts reviewed current status/performance of operational storm surge forecasting model (IIT-D Model) in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) region, the mid-term plan on up-gradation of IIT-D storm surge model; and provided necessary scientific and technical advice. During this workshop, the IIT-Delhi working group demonstrated the enhanced model’s performance in hindcast/operational mode, the combined effect of the interaction of storm surge with tides and wind waves on the Total Water Level Envelope (TWLE). The workshop provided a forum for discussion on the regional development and applications of the upgraded IIT-D model, which would improve SS predictability in the NIO region. The Expert Scientific Advisory Committee and IIT-Delhi working reviewed the medium-term and long-term plans for IIT-D model upgrade and revised them wherever necessary, and decided on the future model upgrade strategy. The workshop also decided on the future course of action in view of collaborating and linking with related international programmes and projects, such as the JCOMM-CHy Coastal Inundation Forecast Demonstration Project (CIFDP) and the eSurge project funded by the European Space Agency (ESA) in which the IOC of UNESCO are supporting and participating. Linkages with other regional projects/programmes was also deliberated and finalized Highlights and recommendations from the workshop are the following: Regarding tide-surge interaction it was recommended that the tidal forcing at the open boundary should be provided as a time-dependent series of ocean tide constituents, so that the TWLE as a result of tide surge interaction may be operationalized in the region. In doing so, the Scientific Advisory Committee (SAC) advised that methodology for operation be worked out to eventually incorporate the effects of wave coupling in order that the wave setup contribution to the Total Water Level Envelope (TWLE). The importance of collaborative efforts to complete the in-situ observational network in the NIO region by all countries was emphasized, and suggestions were made that the countries continue to extend the buoy and tide gauge networks for the area of interest. The workshop reemphasized its earlier recommendations to improve the storm surge predictability of the operational system, including enhanced nowcasting and further improvement of ensemble methods for track prediction. Establishing a link of collaboration of Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) and other Indian agencies with ESA especially in developing and utilizing eSurge database and training material (targeting the anticipated training event in 2012). The storm surge experts of the NIO region while expressing satisfaction on the operational use of IIT-D model agreed to participate in the project’s action plan to improve the storm surge predictability, including upgrading of meteorological/oceanographic observational network and provision of case study results by using the IIT-D model. The development of CIFDP, jointly by the Joint WMO-IOC Technical Commission for Oceanography (JCOMM) and Marine Meteorology and the WMO Commission for Hydrology (CHy), was well noted and welcomed, particularly in view of the TWLE as final deliverable of a forecasting system. The participating experts welcomed the decision of the CIFDP to select the Bay of Bengal as the priority region for the project. It was advised that there should be a close linkage between this project (and following activities in the region) and CIFDP. In connection with the ESA Storm Surge project, eSurge , it was recommended that, all countries in the region (and the India Meteorological Department as Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre) may become Users of the eSurge project, in order to enhance their forecasting and warning systems. The SAC recommended that eSurge establish the appropriate domain coving Indian Ocean, in producing and archiving satellite products. The experts participating in the workshop deliberated on the key requirements. It was emphasized that in order to have continued improvement in the forecasting system it is important that there should be a mechanism through which the relevant data be freely exchanged among the NIO countries. In order to have better coordinated efforts for observing networks and services, greater cooperation, collaboration and commitment of NIO countries/governments were urged, Toward the success of this project, the SAC strongly recommended enhancing linkage between this project with other regional/global programmes such as CIFDP, eSurge , and Indian Ocean Global Ocean Observing System (IOGOOS) as future direction for enhancing forecasting capability in the region. As for the capacity building and outreach, it was agreed that the training on IIT-D model development and operation should continue, in collaboration with ongoing programmes of WMO and IOC. The workshop reviewed the Project Action Plan agreed at the 1st Advisory workshop in 2009 and revised as necessary. Continued from the previous workshop, this event is planned and conducted under the framework of the UNESCO extrabudgetary project on “Enhancing regional capabilities for Coastal Hazards Forecasting and Data Portal Systems”, funded by extrabudgetary contribution from Republic of Korea. The India Ministry of Earth Science (MoES) including the IIT Delhi continues to co-sponsor the project.
|IOC-WR-239||2nd Advisory Workshop on enhancing forecasting capabilities for North Indian Ocean Storm Surges||29/11/2011||
|JOMM2007SSS: Agreed Recommendations and Actions||04/08/2010||
|IOC-WR-223||Advisory Workshop on enhancing forecasting capabilities for North Indian Ocean Storm Surges||29/11/2011||
|ESA Storm Surge (eSurge) Demonstration Service: User Requirements Document||22/02/2011||
|RASHID Md. Bazlur||Bangladesh|
|WEERAWARDENA Ajith||Sri Lanka|
|BANDYOPADHYAY B. K.||India|
|DASH Sushil K.||India|
= Person has not yet confirmed their participation.
Total Invited: 24