ࡱ>  ^xbjbjVV<<o  aaaaa4hlG^%:_(___]]]]]]]$-ac]a__]aa^""""aa]"]""V[p/N!X6]^0G^XodI"vodl[oda[$_L6", ___]]"___G^od_________  ':  WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION ________________________  INTERGOVERNMENTAL OCEANOGRAPHIC COMMISSION (OF UNESCO) ________________________ Services and Forecast Systems Program Area Coordination Group SIXTH session SEOUL, REPUBLIC OF KOREA, 8 TO 11 NOVEMBER 2011SCG-VI/Doc. 5 (31.X.2011) __________ ITEM 5 Original: ENGLISH SERVICES AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS PROGRAMME AREA WORK PLAN FOR THE NEXT INTERSESSIONAL PERIOD (Submitted by the SFSPA Coordinator) Summary and Purpose of Document This document provides a draft workplan for the Teams in SFSPA during the next intersessional period, to report to JCOMM-IV. ACTION PROPOSED The Group is invited to review and agree on the proposed workplan, with revision as appropriate. ______________________ References: HYPERLINK "http://www.jcomm.info/components/com_oe/oe.php?task=download&id=14245&version=1.0&lang=1&format=1"Final Report of the 9th session of the JCOMM Management Committee (JCOMM-MR-88) Appendix: Draft SFSPA input to Draft JCOMM-IV/Doc 8 (Report by Services and Forecasting Systems Area) DISCUSSION SFSPA Priorities for the next intersessional period (2012-2017) for the upcoming interssional period will continue focus on our core mandate areas, i.e., maritime safety, coastal hazard forecasting and operational ocean forecasting services. As WMO moves toward implementing the Global Framework on Climate Services, SFSPA is expected to highlight its major competencies and contributions to GFCS. These include supporting/enabling ice navigation in Arctic Ocean, reducing risks of natural hazards for coastal communities and leveraging JCOMMs core competence in ocean observations for climate and ocean modeling to support ocean forecasting services for weather and seasonal time scales. In addition, a number of new requirements and opportunities have emerged in enhancing maritime safety and response to maritime emergencies. These include interruptions to navigation aid and communication by severe solar magnetic storms and marine volcanic ashes that post potential danger to ships. The Gulf of Mexico oil spell and the radioactive materials lead from Fukushima nuclear power plant following the earthquake and tsunami illustrated the need for oceanic dispersion modeling capability and global response infrastructure. Such capability would enable tracking/forecasting of hazard particles in the ocean, and assessing their potential impacts on marine life, coastal and marine ecosystems, and human health. This is a potential opportunity for JCOMM to leverage on the capability of operational ocean forecasting centers to meet the new requirements, through collaboration with other UN agencies such as IAEA. This Section outlines a high level categorical list of SFSPA priority areas and high priority potential projects for the next intersessional period. A comprehensive SFSPA work plan will be developed and agreed upon by SFSPA expert teams and the Service Coordination Group within one year following the JCOMM-IV. Maritime Safety: Supporting efficiency and safety of ice navigation Present GMDSS capability only supports ice free navigation. A JCOMM priority in maritime safety should be working on extending the GMDSS capability to support both ice and ice free navigation in the ice covered waters. Furthermore, the sea ice component should be extended to all ice covered METAREAS including sub-Arctic and Antarctic waters. For the next intersessional period, SFSPA is expected to continue developing both the MPERSS capability, implementation of sea-ice GMDSS in all ice-covered METAREAS (sub-Arctic and Antarctic) and enhancing product suite for the Arctic, sub-Arctic and Southern Oceans as a high priority effort, as the demand for information supporting ice navigation and maritime safety for all ice-covered waters is expected to increase continuously in the next decade. Met-ocean information in Electronic Nautical Charts SFSPA expects to push forward to partner with the industry toward a ENC/ECDIS displaying capability for met-ocean objects, by leveraging the experience from the success in sea ice information for ENC. Marine volcanic ashfall hazard advisory (Maritime Safety): Volcanic ashes floating on the sea surface has the potential to disable ship engine through ships water intake. Advisories on volcanic ashes disseminated through high seas bulletins could be of value for enhanced navigation safety for mariners. Severe Space Weather events (Maritime Safety): Severe solar magnetic storms could disrupt GPS, satellite communications and HF radio communications. Maritime transits over the open ocean rely heavily on these communication and navigation aid for their safety at sea. As the next peak solar activity period (2012-2013) is closing in, JCOMM may have an opportunity, through collaborations with IMO/IHO to develop relevant space weather advisories and disseminating them to mariners. JCOMM could leverage the weather safety information generation and dissemination infrastructure of the NMHS. Supporting the implementation of GFCS Coastal weather and oceanographic hazards such as storm surge/coastal inundation risks associated with expected climate change/sea level rise is expected to rise significantly. As the WMO strategically moving toward implementing a Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS), SFSPA is expected to lead the JCOMM efforts in service provision for reduction of coastal hazard risks associated with climate variability and climate change. The Expert Team on wind wave and storm surge (ETWS) has been leading the JCOMM natural coastal hazard risk reduction efforts by spear heading the implementation of recommendations from the 1st JCOMM symposium on storm surge during the past intersessional period. To further highlight the JCOMM priority in contributing to the GFCS, SFSPA propose to change the name of ETWS to Expert Team on Waves and Coastal Hazards (ETWCH). Storm Surge Climatology Extreme Wave Database: see paragraphs under waves/storm surges. Marine and Coastal Hazard Forecasting See SCG-VI/Doc 4.3. Operational Ocean Forecasting Services Continue toward the completion of the 1st draft of the Guide for operational Ocean Forecast Systems (OFS) is expected to be a high priority for ETOOFS for the next intersessional period. Following to the publication of the Guide for OFS, begin developing an outline for a manual on OFS, for contribution to the Manual for GDPFS (WMO 485). Through collaboration with (who? and WGNE), ETOOFS will assist the development of manual for ocean component of seasonal Climate Forecast System (CFS), for contribution to the Manual for GDPFS (WMO 485). ETOOFS will lead the effort to establish user requirements for operational ocean forecasting services, likely through a survey of marine and oceanographic forecast users. Maritime emergency response: Oceanic dispersion modelling and tracking ETOOFS will lead the enhancement of the partnership with GODAE OceanView Science Team on developing dispersion modeling capability and future biological and ecological impact assessment capability. Further, ETOOFS will assess service requirements for responding maritime emergencies of this type, and recommend an appropriate framework for internationally coordinated, effective response to future incidents. Update Manuals and Guides Upon the establishment of new forecast guidance on dangerous sea states, the relevant sections of the WMO 471 and 558 will be updated. Develop the Marine Safety Services section (particularly related to the WMO contribution to the GMDSS) for the new GDPFS manual (WMO 485). Develop the Response to Marine Environmental Emergencies (particularly related to the WMO MPERSS, also a place holder for future response to oceanic radioactive hazard pollution) for the new GDPFS manual (WMO 485). Guide to storm surges (update dynamic parts, in relation to initiating storm surge climatorlogy) Guide to Wave forecasting and hindcasting (update, and buiding dynamic part) Capacity Building QMS Framework Support developing training material Support and coordination for training activities Wind Wave and Storm Surge Forecasting (as draft text to a document for JCOMM-IV) The Commission reaffirmed the importance of the wave forecast verification scheme, which was initiated in 1997. It was pleased to note the successful collaboration with the European Space Agency (ESA) GlobWave project in implementing components of the wave forecast verification scheme specifically to expand the verification scheme to include additional remotely sensed data, and spatial intercomparison. The Commisison endorsed the plan of ETWS to continue this collaboration, and also to continue with the development of spectral validation of wave model outputs (Action). In this context, the Commission expressed its appreciation to the current seventeen up from twelve - contributing centres and encouraged Members/Member States to participate in the wave forecast verification scheme and to disseminate their wave data in order to further develop the scheme. It urged Members/Member States to make maximum use of the scheme applications for marine forecasting purposes (Action). The Commission was pleased to note the progress, through joint efforts of DBCP and the ETWS, on the evaluation of wave measurement systems, in support of a wide range of applications, including the monitoring of extreme wave events for disaster risk reduction, wave modelling, and the calibration and validation of satellite wave measurements [see http://www.jcomm.info/wavebuoys]. The Commission noted that there were presently eight participants in the Pilot Project, and invited additional Members/Member States to assist in the development of technology through deployment, testing of prototypes, and evaluation of wave measuring instruments (Action). The Commission recognized the importance of global scientific fora for exchange of information on databases, methodologies and techniques, and sharing expertise. It recognized the value of such exercises to develop technical advice for Members/Member States in fulfilling their services duties in support of the requirements of users in the whole range of maritime activities and in disaster risk reduction. In this context, the Commission requested the Expert Team on Wind Wave and Storm Surge (ETWS) to continue to co-sponsor and co-organize International Workshops on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting and Coastal Hazard Symposia (see HYPERLINKhttp://HYPERLINK "http://www.waveworkshop.org/"www.waveworkshop.org) (Action). The Commission also encouraged Members/Member States to continue supporting these events by actively participating in and by hosting these important events in the future, and requested WMO and UNESCO/IOC Secretariats to keep Members/Member States informed of these developments, to take the necessary actions to promote the involvement of marine forecasters, modellers and researches in those events, and to continue to support such workshops and symposia (Action). The Commission was pleased to note that ETWS had established collaborating arrangements with the European Space Agency (ESA) in support of improved storm surge forecasting through the ESA eSurge Project that will develop a comprehensive database of storm surge events, satellite data, NWP outputs and storm surge model outputs that can be used to explore and develop new tools, techniques and understanding of storm surge forecasting. The Commission recognized the value of the Guide to Wave Analysis and Forecasting (WMO-No.702) and other relevant technical guidance publications in ensuring the provision of high quality, accurate, consistent and timely operational forecast products. In the same context, the Commission noted with appreciation that the JCOMM Guide to Storm Surge Forecasting had been published during the intersessional period [WMO-No.1076]. Recognizing the developments and advances relating to wave and storm surge forecasting, the Commission noted with appreciation the establishment of dynamic parts of both the wave and storm surge Guides. Notwithstanding the development of the dynamic guides, the Commission recommended these publications should be maintained as up-to-date as possible, and therefore requested ETWS to keep the contents of these publications under review, as well as cross-referenced with other Manuals and Guides, including the Manual of Quality Control Procedures for Validation of Oceanographic Data (UNESCO/IOC M&G No. 26), and advise on the need for future updating as appropriate (Action).. In that context, the Commission requested ETWS to revise the Guide to Wave Analysis and Forecasting for publication in the WMO Guide series during the next intersessional period, following the format of the present version (Action). ___________ Draft SFSPA input to JCOMM-IV/Doc 8 (Services and Forecasting Systems Programme Area) JCOMM-III established The Service and Forecast Systems Program Area (SFSPA) which expanded the mandates for the previously Service Program Area by including the new focus of establishing operational ocean forecasting services. JCOMM-III further established major thrust areas for the SFSPA : Ensure maritime weather and sea ice safety including the operational implementation of five (5) new Arctic Ocean METAreas by July 2011. Implement operational ocean forecasting capability by initially develop a Guide for Operational Ocean Forecasting. Reduce risks of weather hazards on coastal community in response to expected consequences of global climate change and sea level rise by implementing recommendations from the first JCOMM storm surge symposium. To make progress in these three mandate areas, the SFSPA identified a number of priority projects aimed at achieving outcomes by JCOMM-IV. These projects are led by SFSPA Expert Teams. Achievements/Progress during the current inter-sessional period (2009-2012) The current intersessional period between JCOMM-III and JCOMM-IV is unusually short (about 2 and a half years in duration as opposed to the usually four years). Given the short interssesional period, however, many projects have been successfully completed. Others have achieved significant progress and are expected to continue into the new interssesional period following JCOMM-IV. This report will highlight progress in major SFSPA priority tasks. A comprehensive description and status of all SFSPA projects are listed in the Appendix (A). Maritime Safety for the Arctic Ocean and ice navigation Under the leadership of ETMSS and ETSI, the SFSPA completed the operational expansion of GMDSS to cover the Arctic Ocean. Five new Arctic Ocean METAreas became operational by 1 June 2011. A new Arctic GMDSS web-server for operational exchange of products across the Arctic Preparation Services and to ensure circumpolar continuity of products is in operation from June 2011. This is a major achievement. ETSI has led the development of the elements of marine pollution emergency response support system (MPERSS) for the Arctic Ocean METAreas, along with the development of the suite of comprehensive sea-ice and met-ocean products for ice and ice-free navigation (led by ETMSS and ETSI). Progress is being made in the MPRESS capability for the Arctic Ocean on a level of national services and EU projects (mostly short-term forecast oil dispersion models) and extended suite of sea-ice, high-resolution satellite imagery and met-ocean products are being broadcast to the new METAreas supporting both ice and ice-free navigation. In addition, ETMSS has made significant improvement on the GMDSS website which now hosts significantly increased fraction of operational NAVTEX disseminated by issuing services. Implement a Framework of Quality Management System JCOMM members have made significant progresses in adapting to a Quality Management System Framework. Several NMHSs including UK, Australia, France and Canada have implemented formal QMS for their marine weather services. SFSPA expects to continue encourage NMHS of members/member states to establish appropriate practice under the quality management framework. Update WMO 471 and 558 for sea state in Maritime Safety Information The ultimate goal to update the two WMO documents for sea state in MSI requires the establishment of new forecast guidance on dangerous sea states. This effort is ongoing. A near term objective is to prepare a white paper by ETWS on recommendations for including hazardous seas information in GMDSS. This is expected to be completed by JCOMM-4. Ice information in Electronic Nautical Charts Under the leadership of ETSI and through partnerships with Electronic Console Display Information System (ECDIS) manufactures, the SFSPA has enabled the placement of sea ice objects on electronic nautical charts (ENC) and display them on the shipboard ECDIS. An integrated sea ice ENC on ECDIS will be demonstrated at JCOMM-IV. The next significant step forward is to develop the ENC/ECDIS capability both for sea-ice and met-ocean information in accordance with the new IHO S-1xx standard. Telecommunication means to deliver maritime safety information to mariners at sea has always been a major challenge. WMO needs to engage IMO and IHO to address the fact of co-existence of state-of-the-art technologies (e.g., ECDIS, Internet) and dark-age but yet highly cost-effective technologies (e.g., radio-facsimile), a major challenge in setting Vision and directions for the future of GMDSS. An immediate step that JCOMM could take is to build on the success of (mostly vector) sea ice object display for ENC/ECDIS by expanding this capability to include (mostly gridded) met-ocean objects in accordance with the new comprehensive IHO S-1xx standard. Under the leadership of ETMSS and ETSI, SFSPA has made noticeable progress in defining an object catalogue for met-ocean variables. The next step is to partner with the industry toward a ENC/ECDIS displaying capability for met-ocean objects. SFSPA expects to push forward in this direction for the next intersessional period, leveraging the experience from the success in sea ice information for ENC. Updating user requirements for marine wx forecasting To keep abreast of maritime user requirements for marine weather and sea ice safety information provided by JCOMM members/member states, ETMSS is conducting a regular user survey which is expected to be completed by JCOMM-4. Survey results will be analyzed and report to JCOMM-4. Coastal hazard disaster risks reduction The first JCOMM symposium on storm surge resulted in a number of recommendations for increase the coastal resilience to weather and climate hazards. Under the leadership of ETWS, SFSPA successfully coordinated a UNESCO coastal inundation forecasting demonstration project (CIFDP) and supported a WMO Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP). The CIFDP project demonstrated feasibility and pathways toward building coastal inundation prediction capabilities for developing and least developed countries. These efforts contribute directly to the WMO Strategic Thrusts in strengthening capacity building and improving service delivery by NMHSs, especially for developing and least developed countries, to fulfill their mandates. A challenge in achieving the desired societal outcomes in targeted developing and least developed countries is the need to think beyond forecasting. This include building storm ready coastal communities and utilizing/enhancing available infrastructure (e.g., telecommunication) to deliver forecasts to the hands of mariners at the sea are major challenges. They need to be addressed in tandem with the building forecasting capacity in these countries. Operational Ocean Forecasting The Expert Team on Operational Ocean Forecasting (ETOOFS) coordinated the implementation of operational ocean forecasting capability at several NMHC. Operational ocean forecasting capability is achieved in Europe (Mercator-Ocean, MyOcean), Australia (Bluelink) and the United States (a Navy-NOAA partnership). ETOOFS also coordinated a framework for conducting routine performance monitoring of the operational forecasting systems among the operational centers. The first Guide for Operational Ocean Forecasting is under development by ETOOFS. Significant progress is being made toward a first draft, however, given the unusually short interssesional period, the work is expected to continue into the new interssional period. A mature document outline has been agreed upon and is being management through collaborative tools (Google Docs). The overall strategy of the Guide is under review. Although still in its infancy, operational ocean forecasting service has already faced strong challenges in meeting societal demands for effective response to disasters such as the Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill and the radioactive discharge into the ocean resulted from the severe earthquake damage to the Fukushima nuclear power plant. A strong partnership with the academic community (GODAE) enabled transition of ocean observation, modeling, and data assimilation in research advancements into operational ocean forecasting service capability at NMHSs. New partnerships across traditional disciplines will be required in ocean observations, biological and radiological expertise to respond, track and assess impacts of these types of disasters on ocean, marine ecosystems, and human society. Update observing requirements SFSPA completed its contribution and updates to the latest cycle of the RRR process including updates on observing requirements for marine meteorology and oceanography. In particular, new observing requirements for operational ocean forecasting applications are being incorporated into the WMO database. This effort supports the WMO Strategic Thrust on advancing science and technology development to enhance access and use of Earth-and-space based observing systems. Capacity Building SFSPA sponsored the following training workshops concerned in maritime safety, quality management, storm surge and operational ocean forecasting. GODAE summer school on operational ocean forecasting (1/2010) Sea Ice analysis training (COMET modules, IAW workshop, Copenhagen, 6/2011) Application of satellite obs for marine forecasting (Oostende, 12/2009) Wave forecasting training (Hyderabad, 1/2010) Marine forecasting training (Dakar, 7/2010) N. Indian Ocean storm surge workshop (2/2011) Emerging Programmatic Priorities and Opportunities for the upcoming intersessional period (2012-2017) Marine volcanic ashfall hazard advisory (Maritime Safety): Volcanic ashes floating on the sea surface has the potential to disable ship engine through ships water intake. Advisories on volcanic ashes disseminated through high seas bulletins could be of value for enhanced navigation safety for mariners. Severe Space Weather events (Maritime Safety): Severe solar magnetic storms could disrupt GPS, satellite communications and HF radio communications. Maritime transits over the open ocean rely heavily on these communication and navigation aid for their safety at sea. As the next peak solar activity period (2012-2013) is closing in, JCOMM may have an opportunity, through collaborations with IMO/IHO to develop relevant space weather advisories and disseminating them to mariners. JCOMM could leverage the weather safety information generation and dissemination infrastructure of the NMHS. Oceanic dispersion modeling (Operational Ocean Forecasting and Marine Emergency Response): The Gulf of Mexico oil spell and the radioactive materials lead from Fukushima nuclear power plant following the earthquake and tsunami illustrated the need for oceanic dispersion modeling capability and global response infrastructure. Such capability would enable tracking/forecasting of hazard particles in the ocean, and assessing their potential impacts on marine life, coastal and marine ecosystems, and human health. This is a potential opportunity for JCOMM to leverage on the capability of operational ocean forecasting centers to meet the new requirements, through collaboration with other UN agencies such as IAEA. JCOMM should enhance the partnership with GODAE OceanView Science Team on developing or enhancing ocean modeling capability for dispersion modeling and future biological and ecological impact assessment capability. SFSPA Work plan for the upcoming interssional period (2012-2017) For the upcoming interssional period, a high level categorical list of SFSPA priorities are highlighted in this report: Maritime Safety: Supporting efficiency and safety of ice navigation Present GMDSS capability only supports ice free navigation. A JCOMM priority in maritime safety should be working on extending the GMDSS capability to support both ice and ice free navigation in the ice covered waters. Furthermore, the sea ice component should be extended to all ice covered METAREAS including sub-Arctic and Antarctic waters. For the next intersessional period, SFSPA is expected to continue developing both the MPERSS capability, implementation of sea-ice GMDSS in all ice-covered METAREAS (sub-Arctic and Antarctic) and enhancing product suite for the Arctic, sub-Arctic and Southern Oceans as a high priority effort, as the demand for information supporting ice navigation and maritime safety for all ice-covered waters is expected to increase continuously in the next decade. Update WMO 471, 558 and 485 for Maritime Safety Services Upon the establishment of new forecast guidance on dangerous sea states, the relevant sections of the WMO 471 and 558 will be updated. Develop the Marine Safety Services section (particularly related to the WMO contribution to the GMDSS) for the new GDPFS manual (WMO 485). Develop the Response to Marine Environmental Emergencies (particularly related to the WMO MPERSS, also a place holder for future response to oceanic radioactive hazard pollution) for the new GDPFS manual (WMO 485). Met-ocean information in Electronic Nautical Charts SFSPA expects to push forward to partner with the industry toward a ENC/ECDIS displaying capability for met-ocean objects, by leveraging the experience from the success in sea ice information for ENC. Supporting the implementation of GFCS Coastal weather and oceanographic hazards such as storm surge/coastal inundation risks associated with expected climate change/sea level rise is expected to rise significantly. As the WMO strategically moving toward implementing a Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS), SFSPA is expected to lead the JCOMM efforts in service provision for reduction of coastal hazard risks associated with climate variability and climate change. The Expert Team on wind wave and storm surge (ETWS) has been leading the JCOMM natural coastal hazard risk reduction efforts by spear heading the implementation of recommendations from the 1st JCOMM symposium on storm surge during the past intersessional period. To further highlight the JCOMM priority in contributing to the GFCS, SFSPA propose to change the name of ETWS to Expert Team on Waves and Coastal Hazards (ETWCH). Storm Surge Climatology Extreme Wave Database Operational Ocean Forecasting Services Continue toward the completion of the 1st draft of the Guide for operational Ocean Forecast Systems (OFS) is expected to be a high priority for ETOOFS for the next intersessional period. Following to the publication of the Guide for OFS, begin developing an outline for a manual on OFS, for contribution to the Manual for GDPFS (WMO 485). Through collaboration with (who? and WGNE), ETOOFS will assist the development of manual for ocean component of seasonal Climate Forecast System (CFS), for contribution to the Manual for GDPFS (WMO 485). ETOOFS will lead the effort to establish user requirements for operational ocean forecasting services, likely through a survey of marine and oceanographic forecast users. Maritime emergency response: Oceanic dispersion modelling and tracking ETOOFS will lead the enhancement of the partnership with GODAE OceanView Science Team on developing dispersion modeling capability and future biological and ecological impact assessment capability. Further, ETOOFS will assess service requirements for responding maritime emergencies of this type, and recommend an appropriate framework for internationally coordinated, effective response to future incidents. 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