ࡱ> ]_\ W?bjbjVV>Z<<(7.8!<]4%""  %%%%%%%$'Q*2%2%4G%!!!6 %! %!!:R$`$KKN$$]%0%$ a+ |a+$a+$$!2%2%!%a+ :  WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION ________________________  INTERGOVERNMENTAL OCEANOGRAPHIC COMMISSION (OF UNESCO) ________________________ Services and Forecast Systems Program Area Coordination Group SIXTH session SEOUL, REPUBLIC OF KOREA, 8 TO 11 NOVEMBER 2011SCG-VI/Doc. 4.2 (18.X.2011) __________ ITEM 4.4 Original: ENGLISH Ocean Forecasting Systems (Submitted by Gary Brassington, ETOOFS Chairperson) Background information Summary report of activities and achievements since JCOMM-III 1 The guide (action #1 progress and on-going) - The introduction of operational ocean forecasting systems amongst multiple centres has provided the user community with a range of data products. The systems, software and data standards vary amongst the providers preventing at present a seamless transition amongst the centres. The ocean community has made further progress toward a meta-data common (e.g., http://cf-pcmdi.llnl.gov/) which has been adopted by most community ocean model software particularly those used for global ocean forecasting, seasonal and climate applications. Ocean forecasting has not yet established best practices and there is general acceptance that further maturation is required before the reduction to a common. The quality of the data products varies in time and space for each system and amongst systems. The research community continue to establish benchmarks in performance and tools for evaluation. The first version of the guide therefore aims to collect together and document the current practice. Such a guide will have a dual purpose: (a) provide existing centres with alternative approaches to promote discussion on the best practice and (b) serve as an aid for developing centres. It is worthwhile noting that In the absence of a guide many new centres are identifying a leading centre and adopting a mentoring approach. Typically this selection is determined by the software being implemented. The draft outline of the guide established during JCOMM-II has been reviewed and revised leading up to the ETOOFS meeting held at JMA, Japan, 7th-9th October 2010. A lead editor was identified to establish a process and manage the development. A team of content authors and reviewers was established during the meeting. A common document sharing area was established subsequently and progress has been made on the content. At the conclusion of JCOMM-III the guide is expected to be approximately 25% complete and will remain a key objective for JCOMM-IV. 2 Ocean observation requirements (action #2 achieved) - Ocean forecasting systems depend on a range of remote sensing and in situ observations from the Global Ocean Observing System. The majority of GOOS is based on research funding with few operational systems. Establishing the requirements and essential variables for ocean forecasting and submission into the international processes that guide the maintenance of current systems. The expert team reviewed and submitted an amended Statement of Guidance and specification spreadsheet for the WMO RRR. Key amendments included establishing new data type of sea surface height anomaly which is an essential variable for ocean forecasting and requirements for sea surface salinity. Amendments were also included for SST, sub-surface ocean state and current observations. The documentation was reviewed and endorsed during the ETOOFS meeting, held at JMA, Japan, 7th-9th October 2010. Specification of observation requirements for ocean forecasting is relatively immature with a strong dependence on the efficiency of the methods currently in use in ocean forecasting systems. The observational requirements for ocean forecasting system requires a rigorous evaluation to establish the best practice. ETOOFS is actively engaged with the GODAE OceanView task team for observing system evaluation with representation at the GODAE OceanView-GSOP-CLIVAR technical workshop on observing system evaluation and inter-comparison, 13-17 June 2011, Santa Cruz, USA. ETOOFS attended the JCOMM OCG meeting, 18th-20th April, 2011, Hobart, Australia. Specific recommendations related to the communication/coordination of format and server changes to the Argo real-time products. ETOOFS is responsible for acting as a point of contact for onward distribution to operational centres. Other recommendations included (a) the coordination of standards and quality control for the new glider instrumentation, (b) capacity for the use of the autonomous in situ network for adaptive sampling and (c) JCOMM coordination of requirements for remote sensing. 3 Performance monitoring (action #3 achievements and on-going) - Routine monitoring of ocean forecasting has been progressed through a number of initiatives since JCOMM III. Four of the leading centres (NAVOCEANO, UKMET, and BOM) have established a routine transfer of their quality controlled in situ profiles onto the USGODAE server. An API was developed to establish the common variables to facilitate the intercomparison. A preliminary study was completed by Reading University from which a more detailed study is being undertaken from which routine monitoring metrics will be established. In addition, the intercomparison is expected to be extended to include additional centres e.g., IFREMER. A discussion paper for routine monitoring for ocean forecasts was initiated to establish the objectives, the metrics, implementation, management and maintenance required and review previous efforts. Earlier efforts within GODAE to perform model intercomparisons were found to be too cumbersome and difficult to implement and sustain in operation. The metrics were also found to be immature, non-standard and difficult to interpret. ET-OOFS has engaged with GODAE Oceanview to establish a new intercomparison procedure based on standard data types and metrics on observation space. The common observations and forecast data products are proposed to be hosted on the USGODAE server. A common software has been established to help standardise the implementation. The first trials and consolidation to routine monitoring will continue into JCOMM-IV. 4 User requirements (action #4b complete) - ETOOFS and ETMSS focused on the integration of ocean forecasting services for maritime safety applications. The relevant products include total non-tidal coastal sea level, ocean currents for tracking and defining search areas and ocean temperature for assessing hypothermic risk (for example this can determine the whether additional safety gear is required). ETMSS undertake a survey of the user community focusing on the metrics: (a) timeliness, (b) accuracy of product by region and (c) impacts. This survey is focused on assessing the services and warnings currently issued to ships such as wind, waves and surge.. At present only a subset of ocean forecasting products are issued as part of the routine warnings. and therefore a survey targeting users comments on existing warnings is not ideally suited to defining new user requirements. The relevant survey questions were restricted to storm-surge for which the ocean prediction systems have been shown to accurately model non-tidal sea level including remotely generated coastal trapped waves. 5 Ocean data management (action #6 progress and on-going) - A legacy of GODAE was the GODAE data service which was composed of the adoption of new metadata conventions, self describing file formats, new protocols for the sharing of data products over the internet and a range of downstream services. These data services continue to be developed (e.g., US-IOOS and MyOcean). The principle objective for ETOOFS has been to encourage the communication between the major programs and the JCOMM data management program area. ETOOFS established a working group composed the lead developers and prepared a data product terminology document as part of the Guide. Several operational centres have retained the WMO data standards of GRIB and BUFR. Support for the extension of these standards to include ocean variables and metadata is also on-going. 6 Capacity building ETOOFS took a leading role in the coordination of the International summer school for observing, analysing and forecasting the ocean, 11th-22nd Jan 2010, Perth Australia. The summer school was attended by 66 students with 75% international students and the curriculum provided by 34 lecturers. A book composed of chapters from each lecturer was published by Springer, "Operational oceanography in the 21st Century". ETOOFS also contributed a lecture/tutorial on operational oceanography to the Second in-region capacity building workshop of the WMO/IOC data buoy cooperation panel (DBCP) and partners, Mauritius, 2-6 May 2011. 7 New developments - During the JCOMM-III period a number of developments related to ocean forecasting has taken place. Deep sea engineering presents a rapidly growing threat to the ocean environment both for fossil fuel energy deposits, deep sea mining and carbon sequestration. The expansion of engineering infrastructure into depths beyond the continental shelf will place at risk poorly understood ecosystems. The recent Mexican Gulf oil spill tragedy and to a lesser extent the Montara wellhead oil spill revealed the challenges to arrest leaks in these environments with protracted periods required in both cases. Correctly identifying the risk level and regulate this expansion, JCOMM MAN and ETOOFS need to promote assessments of the abyssal circulation, its connectivity and surveys of abyssal ecosystems for unique species and sensitivity. The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster discharged nuclear material into the coastal ocean that was being modelled and tracked for maritime safety and other risks. Analyses and forecasts of ocean currents were routinely required as guidance. These services were provided ad hoc and there is potential for improved coordination of these services in terms of areas of responsibility and capability from amongst the agencies. Recent activity has been coordinated by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on a project to build capacity for benchmarking ocean dispersion modelling. Leading agencies involved in scoping a project are NOAA and Mercator. Ocean prediction capability continues to grow with NOAA's Global RTOFS implemented operationally in October 2012 and other active programs in Brazil, India, China and Canada. Ocean observing system, remains a vulnerability for the delivery of ocean forecasting services. The highest priority variable for sea surface height anomaly from satellite altimetry remains at risk of a gap in coverage and quality. Both Jason1 and Envisat are well advanced beyond their mission life. New platforms such as AltiKa and HY series are experimental and of unknown quality. JCOMM MAN can minimise the impact to services through: (a) supporting the maximum extension of existing platforms, (b) optimising Cal/Val periods and transitions to real-time products for new platforms, (c) establishing data sharing policies for new platforms and (d) maintaining or accelerating the schedule for the Jason-3 launch. Adaptive and rapid response observing will continue to be a key area to respond to emergencies such as hazardous chemical spills and maritime emergency response. The recent responses to the Mexican oil spill and Fukushima provide some recent examples where short term increases in ocean observing can positively impact services and guidance. 8 Quality Management (action #23 complete) - In order to ensure the use of best practices and the improvement of value for the user community, JCOMM promotes the implementation of Quality Management Systems (QMS). A QM training, focused on Internal Audit procedures, was provided to Issuing Services by a QM specialist supporting the Australian Bureau of Meteorology during the MSSE Workshop in May 2010. Some of the QMS will be adopted in the production of the ETOOFS guide. 9 Status for each SFSPA Priority Projects related to Ocean forecasting systems Action #1 (The Guide) : status ongoing Action #2 (Ocean observational requirements) : status complete Action #3 (Performance monitoring) : status achieved and ongoing Action #4b (Updating user requirements for ocean forecasting services) :status complete and ongoing Action #6 (Ocean data management) : status progress and ongoing Workplan and priorities for the next intersessional period 10 Ocean forecasting guide - ETOOFS experts will continue to add content to the guide developed under JCOMM-III with the objective for the first complete draft, international review and publication. 11 Monitoring - ETOOFS experts will continue to consolidate routine forecast metrics and internal sharing. A range of opportunities exist to collaborate with GOV to establish the first routine metrics. ETOOFS role will be to document and support their publication. In addition, a new initiative will aim to develop an ocean watch facility to monitor for extremes in the ocean. 12 Observational requirements - ETOOFS experts will continue to maintain and extend the observational requirements for ocean forecasting including coastal and deep water. New requirements are expected to come from MAES activities (e.g., ocean dispersion) including the advocacy for adaptive/rapid response observing. 13 User requirements ETOOFS will target specific communication opportunities with the user community forums to promote ocean forecasting products, identify applications and define user requirements. 14 Maritime Safety - ETOOFS will continue to support ETMSS in the integration of ocean forecast services into WMO systems. 15 MAES activities ETMSS outline a range of pathways for the coordination and distribution of services to support MAES and nuclear materials. Specific projects with IAEA are under development to establish support services and areas of responsibility for dispersion services. 16 Ocean data management - ETOOFS experts will continue to promote the coordination of data services toward ISO and their integration with JCOMM and WMO data management services. ___________     SCG-VI/Doc. 4.4, p.  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